With the rise of COVID-19 cases this summer, Oregonians’ mood is increasingly negative. Barely one-third of Oregonians think the state is headed in the right direction, worries about personal finances are on the rise, and negative feelings about Governor Brown are at a record high.
These conditions could offer an opportunity for Republicans heading into 2022. However, Democrats remain the more trusted party on a number of key issues including COVID-19, healthcare, environment, and K-12 education. There are signs of opportunities for Republicans, though. They are nearly tied on trust when it comes to jobs, taxes and managing the budget. And Republicans lead on one issue that Oregonians are increasingly concerned about: crime.
In this survey we also asked several questions about Oregonians’ views of America. There are some concerning differences by generation. Younger Oregonians are much less likely to say they are proud to be an American or to agree that if you work hard and play by the rules you can get ahead in this country. Perhaps because of their frustrations, younger Oregonians also show signs of being more likely to support aggressive political leadership. Half of young Oregonians agreed to a statement that America needs a leader willing to break some rules to set things right.
Here are some key survey findings:
- Just 36% of Oregonians think the state is headed in the right direction
- 69% are worried about the spread of COVID-19 in their communities, up from 60% in March
- 58% are worried about their personal financial situations, up from 48% in March
- 58% have a negative impression of Governor Brown, a record high
- Oregonians trust Democrats more than Republicans on a range of issues, from COVID-19, healthcare, environment and K-12 education
- 45% agree that American needs a leader who is willing to break some rules
- 34% agree that if elected leaders will not protect America, the people must do it themselves even if that requires taking violent action
This is the second data release from the survey. The first release showed Oregonians’ support for vaccine mandates and their opinions about September 11th.
DHM Annotated September 2021 Part 2.pdf DHM Crosstabs September 2021 Part 2.pdf DHM Panel Survey Presentation September 2021 Part 2.pdf
More and more, governments and businesses are requiring COVID-19 vaccination. In Oregon Governor Brown has mandated vaccines for healthcare workers and educators. This week President Biden announced vaccine mandates for all federal workers and businesses with 100 or more employees. For our September 2021 survey, DHM Research checked in with Oregonians about their support or opposition to vaccine requirements for teachers, healthcare workers, public safety officers, and more.
This is the 20th anniversary of the September 11th attacks. We asked Oregonians if they believe the US government response to the attacks has made the country more or less safe. We also checked in about their opinions about removing American troops from Afghanistan.
- 74% believe that COVID-19 vaccination is important to stopping the spread of infection in their communities
- About 2 in 3 support the state requiring COVID-19 vaccination for:
-
- Healthcare providers: 70%
- Public school teachers: 68%
- Police officers and firefighters: 67%
- Service employees: 65%
- Just 28% think that the US government response to the September 11th attacks made the country safer
- 58% approve of the US removing its troops from Afghanistan
This is the first data release from the survey. We will soon share results about whether Oregonians think the state is headed in the right direction or is on the wrong track, their impressions of Governor Brown and President Biden, and which political party they trust more on several policy issues.
DHM Annotated September 2021.pdf DHM Crosstabs September 2021.pdf DHM Panel Survey Presentation September 2021.pdf
Each year in March (apart from the chaotic month of March 2020) DHM Research asks Oregonians questions about their perceptions of the environment in anticipation of Earth Day. In this year’s survey, we find that perceptions of climate change have changed little despite a historic wildfire season in Oregon. While most Oregonians believe in climate change driven by human activity, and are concerned about its harms, these topline findings obscure large differences among residents-especially by political affiliation.
We also asked about two policy debates that are happening at the local and state levels: bans on new natural gas hook ups and a requirement that all electricity to come from clean sources by 2035. Oregonians strongly oppose the former but are open to the latter.
These findings come from the March 2021 fielding of our DHM Panel. The survey was conducted from March 7 to 14, 2021, and surveyed N=600 Oregonians. To ensure a representative sample, demographic quotas were set, and data weighted by area of the state, gender, age, and education. The margin of error for this survey ranges from ±2.4% to ±4.0% depending on how the response category percentages split for any given question.
Majorities of Oregonians say global temperatures are rising due to human activity, express concerns about being personally harmed by climate change, and call for Oregon to take additional steps to combat climate change.
A scant majority of 52% say there is solid evidence that average temperatures have been rising on account of human activity, while an additional 22% ascribe the increase to natural patterns. In all, 74% say temperatures are rising. Fewer Oregonians say we don’t know enough yet (12%), deny that temperatures are increasing (4%), or are unsure (10%). These results are largely consistent with those observed in DHM Research surveys from the past few years.
There are clear differences in opinion on this topic by political affiliation, with Democrats overwhelmingly ascribing temperature increases to human activity and Republicans particularly skeptical.
Beyond differences by political affiliation, those with higher socio-economic status are more likely to say that temperatures are rising on account of human activity.
Six in ten (61%) Oregonians say they are concerned that global climate change will harm them personally in their lifetimes.
These topline figures belie strong demographic differences, most notably by partisanship. While 85% of Democrats and 56% of NAV/Others are concerned about harms, only 37% of Republicans share this stance.
Younger Oregonians are also more concerned (58-71%), with those ages 65 and older the only age cohort for who less than a majority are concerned (49%).
Concern is also higher among Oregonians with a college degree (71%), those with children at home (69%), tri-county residents (67%), and women (67%).
Nearly as many Oregonians (57%) say that the state should do more to combat climate change, while 26% say the state should not, and 17% are unsure.
Looking at partisan differences, we find that while the perceptions of Democrats and NAV/Others have largely remained consistent, the proportion of Republicans who call for additional actions has risen modestly since March 2018.
Likely related to age trends seen for personal concerns about climate change, Oregonians under the age of 45 (66%) are more likely to call for the state to take action than those who are older (47-53%).
The belief that Oregon should take more steps is also higher among residents under the age of 45 (66%), those with children at home (67%), people with a college degree (66%), tri-county residents (66%), and women (62%).
A majority of Oregonians support the state shifting to clean energy sources by 2035. By and large they expect such a change to improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions and the harms of climate change, with the tradeoff of increased electricity prices.
A majority of 60% support (31% strongly, 29% somewhat) requiring Oregon’s electricity to come from clean energy sources by 2035. In addition, 13% somewhat oppose the proposal, 17% strongly oppose it, and 11% are unsure.
There are notable differences in opinion on this potential policy by key demographics such as party, age, area of the state, and gender.
Asked about the impacts such a policy might have, a majority of Oregonians say that air quality will improve (57%). Pluralities say that carbon emissions (47%) and the risks of climate change (46%) will decrease. Oregonians also identify a clear tradeoff: 59% believe this policy will increase electricity prices.
In general, Republicans, NAV/Others, men, older Oregonians, and those living in the rest of state area were less positive than others about the potential impacts of a clean energy requirement by 2035.
Support for a ban on natural gas hookups is low, and Oregonians clearly favor a transition to renewable natural gas and hydrogen over a ban on new hookups.
Several communities on the west coast are considering local bans on new natural gas hooks up for homes and businesses. Oregonians broadly oppose such policies. Fewer than a third of Oregonians (29%) support their local government banning new natural gas hookups to homes and businesses. A clear majority oppose such policies, with strong opposition outweighing overall support.
While no group favors a local ban on hookups, support is comparatively higher among those under the age of 45 (35-44%) and Democrats (37%).
Opposition is particularly strong among those ages 65 and older (75%), Republicans (69%), men (64%), rest of state residents (58%), and those with incomes of $100K and higher (67-75%).
In contrast, when given the choice between bans on natural gas hook ups and requiring natural gas utilities to transition to renewable natural gas and renewable hydrogen, a clear majority prefer requiring a transition to renewable options (65%) over banning new hookups (6%). That said, 29% are unsure, suggesting broad unfamiliarity with the particulars of these potential policies.
There were no notable demographic differences for this question.
DHM–Annotated–March 2021.pdf DHM–Crosstabs–March 2021.pdf
COVID-19 hasn’t slowed down the Oregon Legislature. Zoom hearings and all, legislators a deep into policy debates. For our March 2021 survey, DHM Research checked in with Oregonians about some of the issues that the Legislature is considering. We also asked how Oregonians are feeling about the overall direction of the state, their impressions of key leaders, and COVID-19, including vaccination distribution and school re-openings.
- 40% of Oregonians feel that the state is headed in the right direction, while 45% say it is off on the wrong track.
- Negative impressions of Governor Kate Brown are at an all-time high. 56% of Oregonians view her negatively, while just 35% have a positive impression.
- Oregonians feel more positively about President Joe Biden. 53% of Oregonians have a positive impression of him.
- More than 6 in 10 Oregonians support Governor Brown’s order for schools to provide in-person instruction.
- Fewer than half (48%) are satisfied with vaccine distribution.
Check out the full results to see more analysis about these findings, and their opinions about legislative issues including ending mandatory minimum sentences, prisoner voting, increasing the state minimum wage, requiring 100% clean electricity, diesel fuel phase out, and alcohol taxes.
DHM–Annotated–March 2021.pdf DHM–Crosstabs–March 2021.pdf DHM Panel Survey–Presentation–March 2021.pdf
DHM/OVBC Survey Results
November 9, 2020
Although the divisive 2020 election may be over and there are just a few weeks left in a year of unprecedented challenges, don’t assume it is going to be smooth sailing for Oregon in 2021. A recent poll found 80% of Oregonians are ending the year worried about our state’s future and concerned about the continuing impacts of COVID-19, homelessness, racial injustice, riots, lawlessness, climate change and more.
What’s even more disconcerting is only 33% of us feel we can come together next year as Oregonians—urban and rural, Republican and Democrat, Whites and communities of color—to make progress addressing these challenges and resetting Oregon.
These findings come from a DHM Research (DHM) and Oregon Values and Beliefs Center (OVBC) online survey conducted from October 1 to October 6, 2020 about a variety of issues including COVID-19, climate change, homelessness, and public finance and taxation. Quality control measures were taken including pretesting the questionnaire and randomizing questions to reduce order bias. Demographic quotas and statistical weighting were also used to ensure a representative sample of 600 Oregonians ages 18+. The margin of error for each question falls between +/-2.4% and +/-4.0% at the 95% confidence level, depending on how the response category percentages split for any given question.
Four out of every five Oregonians are worried about Oregon’s future.
Survey respondents who were worried about Oregon’s Future were asked to describe their worry in 10 words or less. Following are some representative responses:
Worries like these extend across the state with women and younger Oregonians being most worried about Oregon’s future.
Only about a third of Oregonians believe we can come together to address our state’s challenges.
About a third of Oregonians (32%) do not believe we can come together as Oregonians—urban and rural, Republican and Democrat, Whites and communities of color—and make progress addressing our state’s challenges. An addition 35% are not sure.
Republicans are the most likely to feel we can not come together as are Oregonians living in the rest of state.
There is a strong difference in feelings by age with Oregonians ages 18-44 feeling more optimistic that we can come together (42%-51%) compared to ages 45+ (21%-22%).
Men are more likely to feel we cannot come together (39% vs. 26%) while women were more likely to be unsure (43% vs. 27%).
The challenges Oregon faces post-election are numerous and complex. What makes the task of addressing these challenges more daunting is the belief that we cannot come together to get the job done. Our leaders are in for a real test that will reward coalition building across the private, public, and non-profit sectors and good communications with all Oregonians, including those residing in rural areas of the state and communities of color.
The research was completed as a community service by DHM Research in partnership with the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center. Both organizations are independent and non-partisan. DHM Research is a Certified B Corporation (www.dhmresearch.com) and OVBC is an Oregon charitable nonprofit corporation (www.oregonvbc.org).
DHM/OVBC–Annotated–October 2020.pdf DHM/OVBC–Crosstabs–October 2020.pdf
Months have passed since COVID-19 initially spread across the globe. The response and feelings towards the pandemic have greatly varied depending on location and belief systems. Many people have come to adopt new behaviors to help us overcome the risk of exposure to the virus. However, the effects of the pandemic are well beyond physical health as thousands of families and businesses continue to experience the financial impact of the global pandemic. Each month since the pandemic began, DHM has tracked Oregonians’ views and opinions of the virus and how elected leaders have responded to it. In this month’s panel, we check-in with Oregonians to trace the patterns in opinion overtime.
These findings come from a DHM Research (DHM) and Oregon Values and Beliefs Center (OVBC) online survey conducted from October 1 to October 6, 2020 about a variety of issues including COVID-19, climate change, homelessness, and public finance and taxation. Quality control measures were taken including pretesting the questionnaire and randomizing questions to reduce order bias. Demographic quotas and statistical weighting were also used to ensure a representative sample of 600 Oregonians ages 18+. The margin of error for each question falls between +/-2.4% and +/-4.0% at the 95% confidence level, depending on how the response category percentages split for any given question.
COVID-19 remains a top tier issue that Oregonians want addressed by their elected leaders.
When asked to indicate which issue is most important for elected leaders to address, Oregonians list law enforcement (19%), the environment (14%), and COVID-19 (11%) most often.
Although the degree of importance to address COVID-19 has fallen below law enforcement and the environment, creating a plan to address the coronavirus has remained one of the top three issues for Oregonians since the virus appeared in March.
About half of Oregonians are still worried about their personal financial situation due to COVID.
DHM survey results from March indicated that a majority of Oregonians (63%) were somewhat (40%) or very (23%) worried about their personal financial situation. Results from DHM’s April Panel Survey revealed that a majority of Oregonians were worried about the personal financial impact that COVID-19 would have on them. More than half (56%) of Oregonians were very (19%) or somewhat (37%) worried about their personal financial situation in the month of April. October’s panel results indicate that a similar proportion of Oregonians (53%) are still very (19%) or somewhat (33%) worried about their personal financial situation. Results from surveys conducted by DHM in June and September reveal that the level of worry among Oregonians has remained fairly consistent.
Around half of Oregonians are worried that COVID-19 may infect them, a member of their household, or someone under their care.
Oregonians were first asked by DHM how worried they were about personally becoming infected by COVID-19 in April 2020. They were also asked how worried they were that a member of their household or someone who relies on their support for medical care would become infected by COVID-19. We have asked Oregonians this same set of questions in the October panel to observe the change over time.
Nearly half of Oregonians (47%) indicate that they are very (12%) or somewhat (35%) worried about personally being infected by the virus. The proportion of Oregonians who are worried about personally becoming infected has remained fairly constant since April 2020 (45%).
More than half of Oregonians (55%) are very (23%) or somewhat (32%) worried that a member of their household will be infected by COVID-19. This level of concern is consistent with data from DHM’s April Panel where 55% of Oregonians were very (24%) or somewhat (31%) worried about members of their household becoming infected by the virus.
Four in ten (43%) Oregonians are very (16%) or somewhat (27%) worried that someone who would rely on them for support for medical care will become infected with COVID-19. This percentage has decreased slightly since DHM’s April Panel when 48% of Oregonians were very (20%) or somewhat (28%) worried about people who they medically support becoming infected with COVID-19.
More than half of Oregonians believe that the FDA will approve a vaccine for COVID-19 sometime next year.
A majority of Oregonians (54%) think that the FDA will approve a vaccine for COVID-19 sometime next year. About one in six Oregonians (15%) believe that the FDA will approve a vaccine sometime between the election and the end of the year, while fewer Oregonians believe that a vaccine will be approved sometime after next year (9%) or before the November election (3%). However, nearly one in five (19%) Oregonians say they don’t know when a vaccine will be approved.
Belief about the timeline of the FDA’s approval for a vaccine differ by area of state, age, race, party, and education.
Oregon residents in the Tri-county (65%) area are more likely to believe the vaccine will be approved sometime next year compared to the Willamette Valley (48%) and the rest of the state (41%). About one in four residents living in the rest of state (23%) are also more likely to believe that a vaccine will be approved between the election and the end of the year.
Oregonians ages 65+ (70%) are more likely to believe that a vaccine for COVID-19 will be approved sometime next year compared to their younger counterparts (46%-53%). White people (56%) were also more likely to hold this belief than people of color (38%).
Democrats (70%) are also more likely to believe that a vaccine will be approved sometime next year, while those who identify as Independent/Other (49%) and Republicans (35%) are less likely to think that a vaccine will be approved sometime next year.
College graduates (72%) are also more likely to believe that a vaccine for COVID-19 will be approved sometime next year compared to people who have obtained some college education (47%) or those who have a high school diploma or less (47%).
Results from a similar survey conducted by DHM in September indicated that a majority of Oregonians (67%) would definitely (39%) or probably (28%) get the vaccine when it becomes available.
DHM/OVBC–Annotated–October 2020.pdf DHM/OVBC–Crosstabs–October 2020.pdf
Homelessness is an important and urgent concern among Oregonians across the state. Fully half of Oregonians believe leaders should make solving homelessness their top priority and they place responsibility squarely on the shoulders of local and state government leaders. The public views mental illness, substance abuse, and lack of affordable housing as the key drivers of homelessness. Despite the persistence and severity of homelessness, Oregonians haven’t given up hope. More than half the public believes homelessness is a problem that can be solved with the right mix of policies and resources.
These findings come from a DHM Research (DHM) and Oregon Values and Beliefs Center (OVBC) online survey conducted from October 1 to October 6, 2020 about a variety of issues including COVID-19, climate change, homelessness, and public finance and taxation. Quality control measures were taken including pretesting the questionnaire and randomizing questions to reduce order bias. Demographic quotas and statistical weighting were also used to ensure a representative sample of 600 Oregonians ages 18+. The margin of error for each question falls between +/-2.4% and +/-4.0% at the 95% confidence level, depending on how the response category percentages split for any given question.
Half of Oregonians feel strongly that addressing homelessness should be the number one priority in their local community.
One in two Oregonians (50%) believe it is either very important (28%) or urgent (22%) that leaders in their community make solving homelessness their number one priority. Residents of the Tri-county area consisting of Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties (56%), and of the remainder of the Willamette Valley (51%), are more likely than residents of the rest of the state (41%) to hold this view. Democrats (57%) and non-affiliated voters (51%) are also more likely than Republicans (38%) to share this priority. Despite these regional and partisan differences, the expectation that community leaders address homelessness is widely shared.
Oregonians consider mental illness, substance abuse, and lack of affordable housing as the primary drivers of homelessness.
When asked to identify the top three drivers of homelessness from a list of over a dozen potential causes, Oregonians most often cited mental illness (59%), substance abuse (59%), and lack of affordable housing (44%). While a majority of residents across the state view mental illness and substance abuse as key drivers, there is less regional consensus when it comes to lack of affordable housing as a perceived cause of homelessness. Residents of the Tri-county area (50%) are more likely to point to a lack of affordable housing than other residents of the Willamette Valley (40%) and of residents of the rest of the state (37%).
Partisan differences are apparent when Oregonians are asked whether homelessness is a result of personal choice, with Republicans (41%) more likely to cite it as a factor than non-affiliated (24%) and Democratic (11%) voters. Still, a majority of Republicans acknowledge the impact of both substance abuse (76%) and mental illness (61%) as drivers of homelessness.
Despite their differences, Oregonians clearly view the causes of homelessness as multifaceted, suggesting they want a comprehensive strategy to address it, which prioritizes both mental health and substance abuse treatment, but also includes increasing the supply of affordable housing.
Oregonians expect state and local governments to create solutions to homelessness.
Provided with a list of fifteen entities that might bear some responsibility for creating solutions to homelessness, most Oregonians agree: responsibility rests primarily with local (94%) and state (93%) government as well as local (92%) and state (90%) elected officials.
Democrats are more likely to place greater responsibility on housing developers and landlords as needing to play a role in addressing homelessness. Nearly nine in ten Democrats (86%) believe housing developers bear some responsibility, while fewer non-affiliated voters (56%) and Republicans (54%) do so. Similarly, approximately eight in ten Democrats (76%) consider landlords responsible, as opposed to fewer non-affiliated voters (62%) and Republicans (45%).
A majority of Oregonians view homelessness as a problem that can be solved.
Despite the persistence of homelessness as a problem, a majority of Oregonians (57%) remain optimistic that with the right mix of policies and resources, it is a problem that can be solved. That said, optimism is higher among Democrats (69%), than among non-affiliated voters (55%), and Republicans (39%). Optimism is also greater among younger residents ages 18-29 (66%) and ages 30-44 (63%), than among older residents ages 45-64 (51%) and age 65+ (49%).
In conclusion, a majority of Oregonians believe that homelessness is a problem that can be solved–and they expect their local and state leaders to develop effective strategies for tackling the problem. Oregonians view mental illness, substance abuse, and the lack of affordable housing itself as the root causes of homelessness. While they prioritize mental illness and substance abuse more heavily than the lack of affordable housing, they nevertheless consider all three as the top drivers of homelessness. Oregonians appear open, therefore, to a comprehensive solution to homelessness that includes a mix of both mental health and substance abuse treatment as well as an increased supply of affordable housing.
DHM/OVBC–Annotated–October 2020.pdf DHM/OVBC–Crosstabs–October 2020.pdf
Reports of warmer weather, rising sea levels, and the increase of extreme natural events have all been indicators of global climate change. However, many people continue to question whether there is enough evidence to support the claim that climate change exists. Regardless of people’s view on climate change, the bigger question is how to combat it. If climate change does really exist, are we prepared to change our lives to stop it? In this month’s panel, we ask Oregonians about their perceptions and views of climate change and how Oregon should respond.
These findings come from a DHM Research (DHM) and Oregon Values and Beliefs Center (OVBC) online survey conducted from October 1 to October 6, 2020 about a variety of issues including COVID-19, climate change, homelessness, and public finance and taxation. Quality control measures were taken including pretesting the questionnaire and randomizing questions to reduce order bias. Demographic quotas and statistical weighting were also used to ensure a representative sample of 600 Oregonians ages 18+. The margin of error for each question falls between +/-2.4% and +/-4.0% at the 95% confidence level, depending on how the response category percentages split for any given question.
Three in four Oregonians believe that there is solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer.
A majority of Oregonians (77%) believe that the average temperatures on Earth have been rising because of human activity (59%) or because of natural patterns in earth’s environment (18%). However, nearly one in five Oregonians (17%) do not believe that there is solid evidence because we don’t know enough yet (12%) or it just isn’t happening (5%).
There has been a slight shift in Oregonians’ belief on climate change overtime. The proportion of Oregonians who believe that climate change isn’t happening has decreased from 12% in 2018 to 5% in 2020. The proportion of Oregonians who believe that average temperatures on Earth are getting warmer because of human activity has slightly increased since 2018 (52%), with nearly six in ten (59%) Oregonians sharing this belief in 2020.
These beliefs are starkly different by area of the state, political party, and educational attainment.
Residents in the Tri-county area (83%) are more likely to agree that there is solid evidence to support warmer temperatures compared to residents in the Willamette Valley (74%) and the rest of the state (69%).
Members of the Democratic (97%) party are also more likely to hold this belief compared to Republicans (52%) and Independents/Others (71%). Oregonians with a college degree (88%) are also more likely to hold this belief compared to Oregonians with some college education (70%) and people with a high school diploma or less (75%).
A majority of Oregonians are concerned that global climate change will harm them personally at some point in their lifetime.
Six out of ten Oregonians (64%) are very (37%) or somewhat (26%) concerned that global climate change will personally harm them at some point in their life. Three out of ten (34%) Oregonians are not too (17%) or not at all (17%) concerned that global climate change will personally harm them.
The level of concern among Oregonians has increased from 56% since we last asked this same question in 2019. Level of concern varies by area of state, age, education, and political party.
Residents in the Tri-county area are more concerned (72%) about global climate change than residents in the Willamette Valley (62%) and the rest of the state (53%). Oregonians between ages 18-29 (77%) are also more concerned when compared to older Oregonians (53%-64%). College graduates (75%) are more concerned about personally being harmed from climate change than Oregonians with some college education (56%) and people with a high school diploma or less (64%). The greatest contrast in the level of concern is between political parties.
A majority of Democrats (88%) and members of the Independent/Other (63%) parties are more likely to be concerned that global climate change will personally affect them at some point in their lifetime compared to a majority of Republicans (73%) who are not concerned about climate change.
A majority of Oregonians agree the state should take additional steps to combat climate change but less than half of the state is prepared to pay higher taxes for goods and services to fund it.
Six out of ten Oregonians (62%) agree that Oregon should take additional steps to help combat climate change while three out of ten do not think we should take additional steps (26%) or are unsure (12%). However, Oregonians are split when it comes to being prepared to pay higher taxes to combat climate change (46%) or not (40%).
The level of agreement varies by area of the state, political party, and educational attainment.
A majority of Oregonians (56%-67%) across the state believe that we should take additional steps to combat climate change. However, residents in the Tri-county area (59%) are more prepared to pay additional taxes for goods and services while residents in the Willamette Valley (48%) and the rest of the state (49%) are not.
Nearly all of Oregon’s Democrats (88%) and a majority Independents/Others (60%) believe that we should take additional steps to combat climate change while a majority of Republicans (61%) believe that we should not. A majority of Democrats (73%) are also prepared to pay higher taxes for goods and services compared to Republicans (12%) and Independents/Others (42%).
More than half of Oregonians (53%-71%) believe that we should take additional steps to combat climate change, regardless of their level of educational attainment. However, college graduates (69%) are more prepared to pay higher taxes for goods and services compared to Oregonians who have some college education (41%) and people with a high school diploma or less (34%).
DHM/OVBC–Annotated–October 2020.pdf DHM/OVBC–Crosstabs–October 2020.pdf
These findings come from a DHM Research (DHM) and Oregon Values and Beliefs Center (OVBC) online survey conducted from October 1 to October 6, 2020 about a variety of issues including COVID-19, climate change, homelessness, and public finance and taxation.
Quality control measures were taken including pretesting the questionnaire and randomizing questions to reduce order bias. Demographic quotas and statistical weighting were also used to ensure a representative sample of 600 Oregonians ages 18+. The margin of error for each question falls between +/-2.4% and +/-4.0% at the 95% confidence level, depending on how the response category percentages split for any given question. The percentages report below may not add to 100% because of rounding.
Taxation for Public Services
Oregonians are split in their feelings about taxes and public services with about a third each feeling we spend too much on public services and taxes should be reduced (31%) and another third feeling we spend about the right amount and taxes should remain the same (32%). About a quarter of Oregonians (23%) feel we do not spend enough on public services and taxes should be increased, and 15% were unsure.
Tri-county and Democrats were more likely than their counterparts to feel that Oregon does not spend enough on public services and taxes should be increased. Women were less likely than men to feel Oregon spends too much on public services. Women were also more likely to be unsure as were respondents ages 18-44.
This split in feelings about what we spend on public services has been with us for a while. In 2013, the numbers were similarly split: 30% too much, 31% right amount, 28% not enough, and 10% unsure.
Oregonians feel that both small businesses and individuals pay about the right amount (30%/31%) or too much (46% 48%) in Oregon state taxes. On the other hand, they feel large businesses pay too little (61%). Across all three groups (small businesses, large businesses, individuals), Tri-county and Democrats were more inclined than their counterparts to feel the group is paying too little in taxes.
Importance of Public Services
Respondents were asked to indicate the importance of 21 different public services ranging from public safety like police to 4-year colleges-see attachment below. They were provided the following information to use for their ratings:
- Very or somewhat important means you would support some increase in your taxes to increase the service or some reallocation of tax dollars away from other existing services
- Neutral means you do not want more tax dollars to go to that service even if that means a diminished level of the service over time
- Somewhat or very unimportant means you want fewer or no taxes to go to that service now and that it should be reduced or discontinued entirely
Considering combined very or somewhat important, the highest rated services were fire protection (77%), protection of water and air quality (75%), and emergency disaster and preparedness (73%). K-12 education was 70% followed by two at 69%: public health including disease prevention, and road and highway maintenance.
Three of these services were rated by more than 40% of Oregonians as very important: protection of water and air quality (48%), K-12 education (47%), and fire protection (43%). Only one other service was above 40% very important: publicly funded health insurance for all citizens (42%).
Rated least important was economic development like subsidies and tax breaks for business attraction or expansion (30% combined very or somewhat important). It also had the highest very unimportant rating (14%).
Following are some observations for different service areas:
Education: Importance ratings (very or somewhat) ranged from a high of 70% for K-12 education to 44% for 4-year colleges and universities. Rated similarly were vocational and technical training/retraining (60%) and community colleges (56%).
Transportation: Road and highway maintenance was rated higher (69% very or somewhat important) than public transportation like buses and trains and new roads and highways, both 50%. Public transportation had a higher very important rating than new roads and highways (20% vs. 15%).
Public Safety: Support for the police has likely fallen since a 2013 baseline figure that included them as part of public safety along with fire protection. 77% rated fire protection very or somewhat important compared to only 55% for public safely like police. The police have been caught in the middle with some Oregonians feeling that some are racists even wanting police services defunded to others feeling they’ve not doing enough about the riots and property damage.
Environment: Protection of water and air quality was one of the highest rated services. Only fire protection was rated higher. It had the lowest neutral rating and a majority of every demographic subgroup rated it very or somewhat important, including Republicans (60%).
Economic Development: Though subsidies and tax breaks for business attraction or expansion was the lowest rated service, it received the highest neutral rating and the most polarization with 30% rating it very or somewhat important and 32% rating it somewhat or very unimportant.
This October 2020 research benchmarked findings from the 2013 Oregon Values and Beliefs Study. The list of services was the same except that fire protection was separated out from police, and one additional service was included: public health including disease prevention. Following are two highlights from a comparative analysis.
- A decline in support, or at least in willingness to pay more for education, from K12 through higher education
- Four services saw significant increases in willingness to pay more: publicly funded health insurance for all citizens, low income support services, emergency disaster & preparedness, and public transportation like buses and trains. All four of them have a connection with the public health and economic impact of COVID-19.
The research was completed as a community service by DHM Research in partnership with the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center. Both organizations are independent and non-partisan. DHM Research is a Certified B Corporation (www.dhmresearch.com) and OVBC is an Oregon charitable nonprofit corporation (www.oregonvbc.org).
Importance of Public Services Attachment.pdf DHM/OVBC–Annotated–October 2020.pdf DHM/OVBC–Crosstabs–October 2020.pdf
September 11, 2020
From September 3 to 8, 2020, DHM Research conducted a survey of Oregon voters. The purpose of the survey was to assess values and beliefs related to the presidential election, ongoing protests across the country and in Portland, and COVID-19.
This is the second of three planned data releases and focuses on Oregon voters’ preferences in the presidential election, impressions of key political leaders, and an update to their attitudes about COVID-19.
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 12 points among Oregon voters.
Biden leads Trump 51% to 39%, a 12-point margin. This is nearly the exact outcome of the 2016 election in Oregon, where Clinton defeated Trump 50% to 39%. As much has changed, Oregon voters’ presidential preferences seem immovable.
It is no surprise at this point that Trump has Republican voters solidly behind him. 91% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump while 5% plan to vote for Biden. Likewise, Biden has locked down the Democratic vote. 87% of Democrats plan to vote for Biden while 8% expect to vote for Trump. Non-affiliated/other (NAV/other) voters lean towards Biden, with 47% planning to vote for the Democratic candidate and 31% for Trump.
The geographic and demographic support for the two candidates is also not surprising. Biden is winning the Portland metro area (59%) and Willamette Valley (52%), and Trump is winning the rest of the state (55%). By age, Biden has a solid majority among voters ages 18-29 (57%) and 30-44 (61%), while Trump is narrowly ahead among voters ages 45-64 (48%) and 65+ (49%). Men are split, with Biden getting 48% to Trump’s 46%, while women lean more heavily toward Biden (53% vs. 32%), though more women are open to voting for a third party or remain undecided (15%).
Education has become an increasing divide in politics and the presidential election, with Democrats and Biden performing better among voters who have completed more education while Republicans and Trump are favored by those with less education. Among college graduates, Biden is leading by 29 points (62% vs. 33%), while Trump is leading by 7 points with those with a high school degree or less (46% vs. 39%).
Oregon voters view Biden more positively than Trump.
52% of Oregon voters have a positive impression of Biden compared to 45% who view him negatively, a positive lean of 7 points. Among Biden voters, 93% view him positively and 7% negatively. 6% of Biden voters view Trump positively.
On the other hand, 39% of Oregon voters have a positive impression of Trump compared to 60% who view him negatively (53% “very” negative), a negative lean of 21 points. Among Trump voters, 93% also view him positively and 7% negatively. Just 2% of Trump voters view Biden positively.
DHM Research has tracked impressions of Trump since October 2016. Negative impressions have ranged from 55% (October 2018) to 68% (October 2019). His current 60% negative rating is about average for his first term.
A majority of Oregon voters have a negative impression of Kate Brown.
51% of Oregon voters have a negative impression of Brown compared to 43% who view her positively. Impressions of her have been stable the last few years, but they are much more negative than when she first came into office. DHM Research first started tracking her in April 2015 when just 15% of voters viewed her negatively. Negative impressions of her increased the following years, with little change to her positive ratings, and she has had negative ratings since June 2019.
Oregon voters give poor marks to the state’s economic conditions but are relatively positive about their personal financial situations.
77% of voters rate Oregon’s current economic conditions as only fair (54%) or poor (24%), while just 21% feel that economic conditions are good (19%) or excellent (2%). Moreover, voters are five times more likely to say that the state’s economic conditions are getting worse (46%) than say they are getting better (9%).
Surprisingly, there is little to no difference in how voters rate the state’s current economic conditions by income or education levels, Biden or Trump supporters, or political party.
Despite these poor ratings of the state’s economy, Oregonians are feeling better about their personal finances than just about any time in the last decade. Since 2011, DHM Research has asked Oregonians how worried they are about their personal financial situation. The percentage of people saying that they are very or somewhat worried peaked in 2012 at 69%. Worry fell to 50% in late 2019. Worry spiked again at the start of the COVID-19 lockdowns, jumping to 63% in March. Since then, worry has ebbed and now for the second time since June “only” 49% of Oregonians say that they are very or somewhat worried.
Likely reasons for the decline in worry is a combination of enhanced federal unemployment benefits and a lack of ways to spend money during the pandemic. It has now been over a month since the $600 per week UI payments stopped but we are yet to see an uptick in Oregonians’ financial worries.
Voters who live in households where someone has lost a job or income due to COVID-19 are the most worried about their financial situations (73%). Other voter groups worried about their financial situations include those ages 18-29 (71%), have a high school degree or less (62%), incomes less than $25,000 (59%), and women (59%).
Oregonians continue to be worried about the spread of COVID-19 in their communities.
Other groups that are generally more worried are voters of color (82%), those ages 18-29 (76%), college graduates (75%), and women (71%). Groups somewhat less worried are those ages 45-64 (61%) and those with a high school degree or less (61%).
3 in 4 voters believe that the spread of COVID-19 in their communities is either staying about the same or getting better. Just 20% think that it is getting worse.
Despite little change in Oregonians’ worry about COVID-19, the vast majority do not think the spread of the virus is getting worse. And there is little difference by area of the state, with just 18% of voters in the Portland metro area and Willamette Valley, and 24% in the rest of the state, believing that the spread is getting worse.
A majority of Oregon voters approve of how Governor Brown, local elected officials, and local school districts are responding to COVID-19, while most disapprove of President Trump’s response.
Voters’ assessments of how elected leaders are responding to COVID-19 have become increasingly partisan. Oregon Democrats, for example, largely approve of Brown’s response (79%) and disapprove of Trump’s (89%), while Republican’s approve of the president’s response (86%) but disapprove of the governor’s (78%).
With the recent start of the school year, and nearly all students attending remotely, perhaps the more interesting finding is that 57% of Oregon voters approve of the way that their local school district has responded to COVID-19. The difference between parents and those without children is small (and not statistically significant) but voters with kids at home are somewhat more likely to approve (63%) than those without children (54%).
Pharmaceutical companies are one of Americans most disliked institutions. Yet, there is also great hope that an effective and widely available COVID-19 vaccine can put an end to the ongoing pandemic and allow us to return to normal life.
With these conflicting feelings, 46% of Oregon voters approve of pharmaceutical companies’ COVID-19 response, 36% disapprove, and 17% are unsure. Unlike views of political leaders, there is little difference by political party or presidential candidate support. The largest differences are by age with an 18-point gap in approval between younger and older voters. Specifically, 39% of voters ages 18-29 approve of pharmaceutical companies’ response versus 57% of voters ages 65+.
DHM Panel–Presidential and COVID memo–September 2020.pdf DHM Panel Survey–Presidential and COVID_tables–September 2020.pdfResearch Methodology: The online survey consisted of 502 Oregon voters and took approximately 15 minutes to complete. This is a sufficient sample size to assess Oregonians’ opinions generally and to review findings by multiple subgroups.
Respondents were contacted by using a professionally maintained online panel. In gathering responses, a variety of quality control measures were employed, including questionnaire pre-testing, validation, and real time monitoring of responses. To ensure a representative sample, demographic quotas were set, and data weighted by gender, age, area of the state, political party and education to reflect the profile of the November general election turnout.
Statement of Limitations: Any sampling of opinions or attitudes is subject to a margin of error. The margin of error is a standard statistical calculation that represents differences between the sample and total population at a confidence interval, or probability, calculated to be 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the sample taken for this study would fall within the stated margin of error if compared with the results achieved from surveying the entire population. This survey’s margin of error, for the full sample, is ±4.4%.
DHM Research: The research was conducted by DHM Research, an independent and nonpartisan public opinion research firm based in Portland, Oregon. DHM is a Certified B Corporation.