No Justice, No Peace! How Should We Police?

DHM OVBC Panel July Survey Results
July 31, 2020

On May 25, 2020, George Floyd, a 46-year old Black man, was killed in Minneapolis, Minnesota, by a police officer and has since spread a call for action across the country to end to racial inequality and police brutality. People across the globe continue to support the Black Lives Matter movement and demand to reform, defund, or abolish the police. Political leaders have looked towards implementing policy changes that meet the demands of the continued protests. Some of these policy changes have directly targeted the decrease of police funding, while others have demanded more specific changes such as the banning of chokeholds by law enforcement officers. In this month’s panel, DHM Research explored the attitudes and beliefs that Oregonians have towards the police, protests, and changes being asked across the country.

These findings come from the July 2020 fielding of our DHM OVBC Panel. The survey was conducted from July 14 to 22, 2020, and surveyed 603 Oregonians. The results were weighted by age, gender, area of the state, political party, and level of education to ensure a representative sample of Oregonians ages 18+. The margin of error for this survey ranges from ±2.4% to ±4.0%.

Oregonians approve of the police in their community more than police in the
United States.

55% of Oregonians approve of the way police in their community are doing their job. Approval drops to 40% when asked about the job performance of police in the United States broadly. It’s not uncommon for people to give better ratings for issues closer to home versus elsewhere.

Differences are wide by age and political affiliation. Older Oregonians (45-64, 53%) are more likely to report approval for police in the United States than those under the age of 30 (18%). A large majority of Republicans (80%) approve of the job the United States police are doing, while Democrats (22%) and NAV/Other (35%) are significantly less supportive.

Oregonians who disapprove of the job performance of police across the country attribute it mainly to excessive violence (39%), racism (22%), and abuse of power (20%). Those who approve attribute it to policing being a tough job (35%), there only being a few bad cops (27%), and most police officers being well trained and professional (23%).

Do police treat white people and Black people equally?

Slightly over half of Oregonians (55%) believe that police treat white people better than Black people, while almost a third (30%) hold the view that police treat white people and Black people equally. 1% of Oregonians believe the police treat Black people better.

Most Oregonians (62%) also believe the deaths of Black people during encounters with the police are signs of a broader problem, and again almost a third (29%) believe these are isolated incidents.

Those in the Portland metro (72%) are more likely to report this being signs of a broader problem, while those in Willamette Valley (54%) and the rest of the state (54%) are less convinced.

Democrats (86%), those under the age of 30 (72%), and people over age 65 (71%) are more likely to report that the deaths of Black people during encounters with the police are signs of a broader problem than those ages 45-64 (53%) and Republicans (26%). The shared views from our youngest and oldest Oregonians may be due to the fact that younger people have been taking the lead on these protests against racial inequality and those 65+ see similarities between what they experienced during the Civil Rights movement and now.

Now more than ever, a majority of Oregonians acknowledge the need and urgency for state leaders to look at the intersection of race and policing. These issues about policing, race, and racism are important and they will require leaders to address current policies and public safety measures.

Oregonians are split between police reform and reinventing our approach to
public safety.

Seven out of ten (70%) Oregonians believe that some sort of change needs to happen with police departments. More than half of those who believe that change is needed (39%) believe that police departments have a problem with race, but it can be fixed by reforming the existing system. Others who believe in change (31%) also believe that reform hasn’t worked in the past and we need to reinvent our approach to public safety.

In early June, a national survey was conducted by YouGov Poll that asked participants which statement came closest to their view on police reform. The results indicate that a majority of the nation believes that we can fix the problem with race, by reforming the existing system (59%). However, panel results indicate that Oregonians are more split in their belief to defund the police (31%) or reform the existing system (39%). Points of view vary by political party, education, and age.

Democrats (49%), college graduates (39%), and Oregonians younger than age 45 (45%) are more likely to believe that we need to defund the police and reinvent the way that we approach public safety.

Oregonians older than age 45 plus (46%) are more likely to believe that reforming our current system will fix the problem we have with race. Half of the Republicans (50%) believe that police departments don’t need to be reformed.

Requiring police intervention, reporting of force, and publicly releasing disciplinary records receive the most support amongst various changes to policing and public safety.

There is overwhelming support for changes to policing and public safety when focusing on police accountability. Some of these changes include requiring police to intervene when other officers are using excessive force (91%), requiring officers to report each time they use force against a civilian (81%), and requiring states to publicly release disciplinary records for law enforcement officers (76%).

The strongest degree of support for these changes are shown by Democrats (89% or more), college graduates (80% or more), and Oregonians between the ages 18–29 (81% or more). While small amounts of opposition are likely from those who identify as Republican (33% or less), have a high school diploma or less (16%), and are older than 65 years of age (21%).

How much funding should we shift to social services?

Oregonians believe that an average of 22%, with a median value of 15%, of the police budget should be allocated towards social services. Democrats and NAV/Other voters are more likely to provide a percentage that is within 10% or more of the average. While Republicans are more likely to provide a percentage that is lower than the average. It is also more likely that Republicans (73%) would oppose allocating any funds to social services.

Alternatives to Justice

Restorative and transformative justice provide two possible alternatives in how we shape the criminal justice system. However, six out of ten Oregonians are not familiar with either concept.

After providing a definition for each approach to justice, a majority (67%) of Oregonians say that they would support using these principles to reshape the criminal justice system. Levels of support vary by political party, and approval of the police in the US.

Democrats (83%) and NAV/Other voters (70%) are more likely to support using these methods while Republicans (40%) are less likely to support using these methods.

Furthermore, those who disapprove of policing in the US (82%) also support these methods at a greater rate than those who approve of policing in the US (48%).

Although the split in partisanship is not surprising, the supporting majority of these changes indicate that a change in policing and public safety is possible.

The research was completed as a community service by DHM Research in partnership with the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center. Both organizations are independent and non-partisan. DHM Research is a Certified B Corporation and OVBC is an Oregon charitable nonprofit corporation.

DHM-OVBC-Panel Police, Protests, Racial Injustice Survey –July 2020 Census Weighted Tables.pdf DHM OVBC-July Survey_summary memo – Police, Protests, Racial Injustice – July 2020.pdf

Is it Raining? Oregonians Awareness and Expectations of Environmental Challenges

Oregon is in the middle of a drought. Most Oregonians may not realize this as their attention has been largely focused on COVID-19. We are curious to know how aware Oregonians are of Oregon’s water issues and their perceptions for Oregon’s environmental challenges in the future.

These findings come from the fielding of the monthly DHM-OVBC Oregon Values and Beliefs Panel Survey. The online survey was conducted from May 29-June 7, 2020. It surveyed 900 Oregonians. To ensure a representative statewide sample, demographic quotas were set, and the data was weighted by area of the state, gender, age, and education. The survey’s margin of error is ±2.0% to ±3.3% depending on how the response category percentages split for any given question.

Is it Raining?

How aware Oregonians are of the current drought? Twenty-six percent (26%) of respondents reported that rainfall is at drought levels and an additional 38% report rainfall is a bit below normal. So, a majority of Oregonians are unaware of the drought, but 64% know that rainfall is below average.

Oregonians knowledge regarding rainfall is fairly stable across demographics. We do see some variance for age and county. Thirty-six percent (36%) of seniors (65 and older) were aware of the drought level rainfall, much higher than the 18% of young respondents (18-34 years old). Respondents in the Tri-County appear slightly less aware of the drought, only 23% reporting we are at drought level rainfall compared to 31% in the rest of the state and 26% in the Willamette Valley.

Water Needs and Management

A majority of Oregonians, 60%, believe that we have enough water for our current needs. Oregonians are more divided over our future needs, with just 39% believing we have enough water for the future. Respondents tend to approve more than they disapprove of Oregon’s management of water supplies during draughts, 48% approve and 25% disapprove. It appears that many respondents are unsure and not aware of how effective Oregon manages the water supply.

Republicans tend to report higher frequencies of having enough water for current and future needs (73% current and 57% for future) compared to Democrats (54% current and 26% future) and NAV/ Other (56% current and 40% future).

Perceptions of our current water needs tended to be divided by household income. Low-income respondents (under $25,000 a year) reported we have enough water in 46% of cases, far less than the 70% reported by high-income respondents (over $100,000 a year).

Water Related Challenges Over Ten Years

Over the next 10 years, Oregonians expect to experience some water related challenges. A strong majority of respondents believe it is likely that Oregon will experience a loss of Douglas Firs (60%), hotter summers (71%), increased conflict between water users (62%), and an increase in the number and severity of wildfires (74%).

Oregonians judgements varied by respondents’ age, education, and political affiliation. We averaged responses across the five topics for the demographics displayed below.

Younger individuals (mean=55.8%) tended to be less sure that the future would hold water challenges than older Oregonians (65 and older, mean=68.2%). We also see significant differences across education, with more educated respondents (mean=74.4% compared to mean=56.6%) expecting challenges more frequently. And, across political affiliation, Democrats frequently expect water challenges in the future (mean=76%), followed by NAV/Other (mean=62.6%), and Republicans (mean=49%).

How Does This Compare to a Year Ago?

We asked the same questions in August of 2019. Although the results from this survey seem like Oregonians expect water challenges, the percentages fell across all topics. The most significant change is reduced water quality, falling from a strong majority of 60% in August 2019 to just 48% in June 2020.

Summary

Oregonians have adapted many of their behaviors in response to COVID-19, including transportation ones. It is still unclear which of these new behaviors are here to stay and which will subside as we transition out of the pandemic. Oregonians are split on hypothetical measures to increase spending flexibility of revenue from the gas tax and the implementation of mileage-based user fee program. The future of these measures will likely come down to how NAV/Other vote and the effectiveness of the campaigns on both sides.

The differences may arise for several reasons. Respondents in August 2019 were living in a very different world than in June 2020. In August 2019, respondents were in the middle of a very hot month when these issues may have seemed more prominent. In contrast, in June 2020, most respondents focus is likely on COVID-19 and the recent racism and police brutality protests. COVID-19 has also been beneficial to reduce CO2 emissions and increase environmentally sustainable behavior which may have made respondents more optimistic regarding water challenges of the future.

Summary

Oregonians are largely unaware that the state faces a drought, but a majority know that rainfall is below average. Still, most respondents feel we have enough water for our current needs, but they are less certain regarding our future needs. More generally, Oregonians appear more optimistic regarding future water related challenges in June 2020 than they were in August 2019. As discussed, this is likely due to respondent’s having very different focuses. It will be interesting to see how these opinions change as we move out of the shadows of COVID-19.

DOWNLOAD:DHM OVBC Water_Draught June 2020 Survey.pdf

Where Are We Going? Transportation Beyond the Pandemic

In response to COVID-19 and the shelter-in-place order, Oregonians’ travel and transportation habits were forced to change. We are curious to know how Oregonians adapted their habits, what their current outlook is, and their expectations for the future.

How Has COVID-19 Affected Oregonians?

COVID-19 has changed how we live. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Oregonians reported that the pandemic has changed their daily routines. All of the changes relate to limiting the exposure and transmission of COVID-19. Respondents are purchasing masks (52%), washing their hands more frequently (73%), and avoiding physical contact with others (71%). For some, the pandemic has meant working from home (18%) and having children stay at home (18%).

Is This the New Normal?

COVID-19 has forced Oregonians to adapt. We wanted to measure which of these changes were felt by Oregonians to be desirable, and whether they felt the change would be temporary or permanent. Oregonians perceived driving less and spending more time locally as a very desirable change (51%) but did not expect it to be permanent (10%).

Ordering goods online was not seen as desirable change (18%), but most respondents believe it will be a permanent one (59%). Oregonians appear uncertain about telemedicine. Forty-one percent (41%) of respondents see the new reliance on telemedicine as temporary, while 32% expect it to be permanent.

Will environmentally sustainable behavior stick?

We asked Oregonians how likely they would do be to behave in certain ways as the state came out of the coronavirus pandemic in order to reduce CO2 emissions. About 50% of respondents believe they are likely or somewhat likely to maintain the environmentally sustainable behaviors, with a high of 63% believing they are likely to live a simpler lifestyle and a low of 27% feeling they would work less.

Revenue generated from the gas tax is also projected to decrease and is already not keeping up with the cost of repairing roads. Given this problem, we asked Oregonians if they would be willing to fund a mileage-based user fee program as an alternate way to fund transportation.

More Oregonians oppose a mileage-based user fee program (46%) than support it (40%). Again, an important portion of Oregonians remain unsure (14%). Opponents are stronger in their opposition (29% strongly oppose) than supporters in their support (14%). The uncertainty and overall narrow difference between those who oppose and those who support these measures suggests that a strong campaign on either side of the issue could make the difference.

The results from both measures vary significantly based on political affiliation and education of the respondents. Respondents with a university degree supported both measures, 51% support for the mileage-based user fee program and 56% support for amending the Oregon Constitution and allow greater flexibility to spend gas tax revenue. This is far more than the 36% and 42% support rates for respondents with a high school diploma.

Democrats tend to support both measures, but their support appears stronger for increasing the flexibility of gas tax revenue (65%). Republicans are strongly opposed to both measures. In both cases, NAV/Other falls in between Democrats and Republicans. NAV/Other appear to be more on the side of Republicans and in opposition to the mileage-based user fee program and are squarely in between the two major parties on redirect gas tax revenue.

Summary

DOWNLOAD: DHM OVBC Transportation June 2020 Survey.pdf

Are Environmentally Sustainable Changes Here to Stay? A Complicated Picture of the Spillover from COVID-19

As a result of COVID-19, Oregonians have been forced to change how they live. A positive outcome of this has been a transition to more environmentally sustainable behavior. We are curious to know how Oregonians view these changes in behavior and their expectations regarding environmentally sustainable behavior in the future.

How important do Oregonians think it is to maintain environmentally sustainable behavior following the pandemic?

A majority of Oregonians (61%) believe it is important to maintain environmentally sustainable behavior to reduce CO2 emissions as we come out of the coronavirus pandemic (importance was determined by responses of 7 and higher on a 0-to-10 scale). Thirty-one percent (31%) believe it is 10/10 important to maintain these behaviors while 10% of Oregonians believe it is 0/10 important to maintain them. The mean score for Oregonians was 6.7, indicating that most Oregonians do believe it is important to stay environmentally sustainable.

The results varied by the respondents’ region, gender, and political affiliation. Individuals in the Willamette Valley (Mean=6.3) believe it was less important to maintain environmentally sustainable behaviors than individuals in Tri-County (mean=7.1) and the rest of the state (mean=6.7). And, women (mean=7.2) feel it is more important than men (mean=6.2).

Predictably, the perceived importance of maintaining environmentally sustainable behaviors also varied by political ideology, with Democrats (mean=8.5) considerably more likely to say it is important than Republicans (mean=4.5), and NAV/Other (mean=6.5) fell directly in between.

Will behavior stick?

We asked Oregonians how likely they thought these new behaviors would continue following the COVID-19 pandemic. Most of the polled behaviors are considered likely or somewhat likely to continue by about 50% of respondents. Sixty-three percent (63%) believe that living a simpler life is likely to be a lasting change while just 27% of Oregonians think they will work less following the pandemic.

If we exclude work less, an item perceived to be not likely of continuing for most Oregonians, we can identify trends by demographic. Across the other five behaviors (stay closer to home during vacations, consuming less, living a simpler life, driving less, and flying less), the average affirmative response varies by gender, income, and political ideology.

Women (mean=61.8) are more likely to commit to these COVID-19 changed behaviors than are men (mean=48.4). This is consistent with the results from the importance to maintain behaviors. So, women both find it more important to maintain environmentally sustainable behaviors and report higher likelihoods of continuing new sustainable behaviors.

Similar to the gender, we again see that Republicans (mean=39.6), compared to Democrats (mean=66.2) and NAV/Other (mean=53), perceive it less likely that they will continue these new COVID-19 induced habits.

By comparing high-income Oregonians (over $100,000 a year) and low-income Oregonians (under $25,000 a year), we find that well-off respondents (mean=50.6) report that they are less likely to continue to engage in sustainable behavior than those in the low-income group (mean=59.2). This is especially important because high-income Oregonians likely changed their lifestyles more than low-income Oregonians. This may suggest that wealthier individuals are more likely to revert to the behaviors of pre-COVID days. Still, a narrow majority of the wealthy respondents reported they were likely or somewhat likely to maintain their new behaviors.

Balancing Desirability with Expectations

Respondents were asked to assess the desirability and predict the permanence of two general habits: driving less and staying in one’s local area and living simply and consuming less. Overall, respondents tended to see these new environmentally sustainable behaviors as desirable but perceived them to likely be not happening or only temporary changes.

In both cases, just 10% of Oregonians thought these habits would become permanent changes. This is in striking contrast to the previous questions where Oregonians perceived it as likely that they would adopt environmentally sustainable behaviors.

Oregonians Support a Green Jobs Training Program

Oregonians tend to be supportive of a new Green Jobs Training Program (mean=6.8). Sixty-two percent (62%) of respondents were very supportive and just 17% were not supportive. Consistent with the other findings, Republicans remain in opposition to something environmentally friendly (mean=4.6) compared to Democrats (mean=8.6) and NAV/Other (mean=6.7). Gender also remained divided, but the gap was narrow. Females (mean=7.0) were slightly more supportive of the program compared to males (mean=6.6).

Summary

Oregonians believe it is important to maintain COVID-19 induced environmentally sustainable behaviors and overwhelmingly support a Green Jobs Training Program. Still, it is not all good news for environmental sustainability. Although respondents report it likely that they will adopt new behaviors and believe it would be desirable for Oregonians to live simpler and more local lives, they do not see permanent changes and a new normal. Common trends of gender (women caring more than men) and political ideology (Republicans caring less than Democrats and NAV/Other) consistently influence Oregonians beliefs on environmentally sustainable matters. Overall, Oregonians support an environmentally sustainable lifestyle, but it is unclear if the new behaviors that arose out of the COVID-19 pandemic are here to stay.

DOWNLOAD: DHM OVBC Climate Change June 2020 Survey.pdf

Living with COVID-19 Reason for Optimism

DHM Research is pleased to share results of our latest COVID-19 survey. This is the second of two data releases for this survey. Key findings in today’s release include:

43% of Oregonians now say the state is headed in the right direction while 38% feel that it is off on the wrong track. The right direction percentage is down from 56% in April.
Oregonians are feeling a mixture of optimism and pessimism about the future. On the positive side, 57% report that most days they feel that there are valuable lessons to be learned from COVID-19. But on the negative side, 53% also report that most days they feel that we won’t learn from COVID-19 or change our behaviors.
Many Oregonians believe that some changes we’ve experienced due to COVID-19 will become permanent, including increased online shopping (59%), remote working (46%), and, worryingly, persistently high unemployment (26%).

DOWNLOAD: DHM COVID-19 Summary Memo & Toplines DOWNLOAD: DHM COVID-19 Survey Crosstabs

Is the Worst Behind Us? An Update on the Economic Outlook of Oregonians

63% of Oregonians rate the state’s economic conditions as poor or very poor. This is up from 55% in March.
Although Oregonians are growing more concerned about the state of the economy, they have become less worried about their own personal financial situations. Now, 49% say that they are somewhat or very worried about their financial situation, which is down from 63% in March and 56% in April.
Oregonians are becoming increasingly divided about opening up the economy. Given the choice 40% said it is urgent to open up the economy while 55% said it is not safe yet. Opinions vary starkly by political party with 66% of Republicans saying that opening is urgent compared to just 16% of Democrats.

Additional findings in the survey include the percentage of Oregonians who expect need help paying for everyday basics and housing, current attitudes on taxes and public spending, beliefs about longer-term changes about work, driving and personal consumption.

DOWNLOAD: DHM COVID-19 Summary Memo & Toplines DOWNLOAD: DHM COVID-19 Survey Crosstabs

Oregonians oppose releasing people from jails and prisons to meet COVID-19 social distancing guidelines.

DHM Research conducted its second survey of Oregonians about COVID-19. This is the third of three data releases from this survey. Key findings in today’s release includes:

Releasing people from jails and prisons

Oregonians strongly oppose (68% oppose) a general release of people from jails and prisons to meet COVID-19 social distancing guidelines. A majority (56%) also oppose releasing inmates because they are medically fragile.
Oregonians are split about whether to release inmates from Oregon’s jails and prisons who have less than 12 months remaining on their terms or who are deemed low risk to the community.

Experiences and opinions about the healthcare system

3 in 10 Oregonians have had the treatment of an important health issue delayed because it is not considered essential during the COVID-19 outbreak.
A majority (59%) believe Oregon’s hospitals have capacity for the number of people expected to need care for COVID-19.

The typical Oregonian expects that it will take another two months before it is safe to go to the doctor’s office for routine care and three months to have surgery at a hospital.

DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID 2 Survey Report_data release 3 — April 2020.pdf DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID Survey 2–Tables–Data Release 3.pdf DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID Survey 2_data release 3–Annotated–April 2020.pdf

Oregonians expect it to take months before they feel safe returning to normal activities

DHM Research conducted its second survey of Oregonians about COVID-19. This survey focuses on their opinions about when it will be safe to return to normal activities and the criteria people will use when making that decision.

This is the second of three data releases from this survey. Key findings in today’s release include:

Oregonians expect it to take months before they feel safe returning to normal activities.
Oregonians put the most trust in public health officials when deciding if it is safe to return to normal activities. Trust in Governor Brown and President Trump is lower and much more partisan.
Oregonians will be reluctant to return to normal activities until widespread testing is available and there is a low rate of new COVID-19 infections.
Oregonians support the state reporting positive COVID-19 cases at multiple levels, such as by zip code and specific nursing home facilities.
Large numbers of Oregonians would not immediately self-isolate if they learned they were in contact with a COVID-19 positive person.

The final data releases will focus on Oregonians’ opinions and experiences with the healthcare system, and their support for releasing people from jails and prisons to manage potential COVID-19 outbreaks.

DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID 2 Survey Report_data release 2 — April 2020.pdf DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID Survey 2_data release 2–Annotated–April 2020.pdf DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID Survey 2–Tables–Data Release 2.pdf

Survey shows that Oregonians overwhelmingly support the state’s stay at home orders

DHM Research conducted its second survey of Oregonians about COVID-19. This survey focuses on their opinions about the state’s stay at home orders and the conditions that they think need to be met to allow businesses, schools and other places to reopen.

The results are clear that Oregonians’ support the stay at home orders, and that support is broad across all areas of the state and political affiliations. The survey also shows that the most important conditions to meet before reopening are widespread COVID-19 testing with declining positive cases, sufficient hospital capacity, and the availability effective treatments.

This is the first data release for the survey. Upcoming data releases will focus on when Oregonians believe that it will be safe to return to normal activities, their opinions and experiences with the healthcare system, and support for releasing people from jails and prisons.

DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID 2 Survey Report_data release 1 – April 2020 DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID Survey 2_data release 1 – Annotated – April 2020.pdf DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID Survey 2 – Tables – Data Release 1.pdf

Survey Results: Oregonians’ Response to Coronavirus

DHM Research conducted this survey to benefit Oregonians and public leaders as we all continue to address the coronavirus outbreak. We recognize that this is a quickly developing situation and that attitudes will continue to be shaped by events. Therefore, we present these findings as both a guidepost for moving forward and as an historical document indicating where have been.

DOWNLOAD: DHM COVID-19 Survey Toplines DOWNLOAD: DHM COVID-19 Survey Crosstabs

No Justice, No Peace! How Should We Police?

Oregonians approve of the police in their community more than police in the
United States.

Do police treat white people and Black people equally?

Oregonians are split between police reform and reinventing our approach to
public safety.

Requiring police intervention, reporting of force, and publicly releasing disciplinary records receive the most support amongst various changes to policing and public safety.