September 10, 2020
From September 3 to 8, 2020, DHM Research conducted a survey of Oregon voters. The purpose of the survey was to assess values and beliefs related to the presidential election, ongoing protests across the country and in Portland, and COVID-19.
This is the first of three planned data releases that focuses on Oregon voters’ opinions about the protests that have been ongoing since the death of George Floyd in May.
A majority of Oregon voters (56%) believe that the state is on the wrong track, while just 31% think we’re headed in the right direction.
After months of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions, job losses, protests, and now an explosion of forest fires, Oregonians are unhappy. In the pre-pandemic months, right direction percentages hovered in the high-40s to low-50s, which was about average for the last two decades. In the first days of COVID-19 right direction percentages fell to 40% but then bounced up to 51% in April. This rise in positive outlook was a trend across the country, and even the globe, as people rallied around their communities and leaders. However, it didn’t take long for the new realities to sink in and now most Oregonians feel like we’ve lost our way.
Every area of the state reports feeling negatively, with majorities in the Portland metro area (54%), Willamette Valley (50%), and the rest of the state (63%) believing that Oregon is on the wrong track.As always, perceptions of Oregon are driven by partisanship with Democrats and Republicans seeing very different versions of the state. Currently, 48% of Democrats say that the state is headed in the right direction compared to 18% of Republicans, and 23% of non-affiliated/other voters (NAV/other).
When asked an open-ended question to name the most important issue that they would like their state leaders to address, more voters mentioned something about the ongoing protests (30%) than any other issue. In fact, about twice as many mentioned protests compared than COVID-19 (16%) or the economy (13%). Addressing racism was mentioned by 7% of voters and police reform by 5%. Racism and police reform were mentioned significantly more among voters ages 18-29 (17% and 14% respectively).
A majority of Oregon voters disapprove of how all major elected leaders have responded to the ongoing protests across the United States and Oregon.
Nearly six in 10 Oregon voters disapprove of how President Donald Trump (59%), Governor Kate Brown (57%), and Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler (58%) are responding to the ongoing protests.
There are large demographic and partisan differences in opinions. For Trump, 86% of Republicans approve of his response compared to just 10% of Democrats and 33% of NAV/other. Conversely, Democrats tend to approve of Brown’s response (63%) while few Republicans (11%) and NAV/other(27%) approve. Partisan differences are less extreme for Wheeler with 48% of Democrats approving of his response versus 13% of Republicans and 23% of NAV/other.
Support for Wheeler’s response the protests is higher among voters of color (41%) than it is among White voters (28%). It is also somewhat higher among voters with a college degree (38%) than it is with those with less education (23-27%). The differences of opinion about Wheeler by area of the state are relatively small. Approval is greater in the Willamette Valley (36%) and the Portland metro area (32%) than the rest of the state (24%).
Voters are split in their opinions about how the Portland Police have responded to the protests.
While there have been protests across the state, nowhere have they been as sustained and attention-grabbing as Portland. For over one hundred days protesters and Portland police officers have engaged and at times their interactions have turned violent. Although protests have been mostly confined to small areas of Portland, the images of the nightly events have had a statewide and national audience.
Overall, 46% of Oregon voters approve of the Portland Police response to the ongoing protests and 45% disapprove. Metro area voters’ assessment of the Portland Police are similar to other Oregonians with 46% approving of their response and 49% disapproving.
There are large differences in approval by race and age. 50% of White voters approve of the response of the Portland Police compared to 26% of voters of color. Approval steadily increases by age from just 21% of those ages 18-29, to 37% ages 30-44, 52% ages 45-64, and 59% ages 65+.
Two-thirds of Oregon voters disapprove of the ongoing protests in Portland and few believe that they have been helpful to Black Portlanders, race relations, or efforts to make police reforms.
By a margin of more than two to one, more Oregon voters disapprove (66%) of the protests in Portland than approve of them (31%). In the Portland metro area specifically, 61% disapprove and 36% approve.
Voters ages 18-29 are the only group to approve of the protests, with 62% saying that they approve compared to 33% who disapprove. Voters of color are split in their assessments with 49% approving and 46% disapproving.
Beyond general approval, voters were asked if the protests in Portland have been more helpful or harmful to Black Portlanders, race relations, and efforts to make police reforms. On all accounts, most voters do not believe that the protests are helpful. Just 28% believe that they are helpful to Black Portlanders, 24% to race relations, and 27% to efforts to make police reforms.
However, there are important demographic differences, most notably by age and race. For example, 52% of voters ages 18-29 and 51% of voters of color believe that the protests in Portland are helping Black Portlanders. Voters of color, however, are less likely to believe that the protests are helping race relations (39%).
A majority of Oregonians believe that the protests in Portland have been mostly violent. At the same time, just 29% feel that the Portland police have used too much force.
When presented the choice, 56% of Oregonians believe that the protests in Portland have been mostly violent while 36% think that they have been mostly peaceful, and 7% are unsure. As elsewhere, there are large partisan differences in voter assessments. 57% of Democrats believe that the protests have been mostly peaceful compared to 83% of Republicans who say that they have been mostly violent.
Oregon voters are more likely to believe that police in Portland have not used enough force (42%) in their response to protesters than believe that they have used too much force (29%).18% think they have used the right amount and 11% are unsure.
Again, there are significant differences in opinion by age and race. 66% of those ages 18-29 think the police are using too much force while 54% of those ages 45+ believe that the police are not using enough. Similarly, 60% of voters of color feel that the Portland police are using too much force compared to 45% of White voters (a plurality) who say that they are not using enough.
A majority of Oregon voters believe that “riot” is a more accurate description than “protest” of the ongoing events in Portland.
Some have adopted the word “riot” to describe the ongoing events in Portland. This includes everyday people on social media, political leaders in speeches, and the media in news reports. However, it’s often not clear where a protest stops and a riot begins. At the end of the survey, we asked voters what word is a more accurate description of the events in Portland: 55% said riot and 37% said protest.
The voters most likely to say that “riot” is the more accurate description are Republicans (85%), those ages 45+ (63-68%), those living in rural Oregon (64%), and those who have a high school degree or less (63%). The voters who say that “protest” is more accurate are those ages 18-29 (67%), Democrats (57%), and those who have a college degree (46%).
DHM Panel–Protests memo_final–September 2020.pdf DHM Panel–Protests memo_tables–September 2020.pdfResearch Methodology: The online survey consisted of 502 Oregon voters and took approximately 15 minutes to complete. This is a sufficient sample size to assess Oregonians’ opinions generally and to review findings by multiple subgroups.
Respondents were contacted by using a professionally maintained online panel. In gathering responses, a variety of quality control measures were employed, including questionnaire pre-testing, validation, and real time monitoring of responses. To ensure a representative sample, demographic quotas were set, and data weighted by gender, age, area of the state, political party and education to reflect the profile of the November general election turnout.
Statement of Limitations: Any sampling of opinions or attitudes is subject to a margin of error. The margin of error is a standard statistical calculation that represents differences between the sample and total population at a confidence interval, or probability, calculated to be 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the sample taken for this study would fall within the stated margin of error if compared with the results achieved from surveying the entire population. This survey’s margin of error, for the full sample, is ±4.4%.
DHM Research: The research was conducted by DHM Research, an independent and nonpartisan public opinion research firm based in Portland, Oregon. DHM is a Certified B Corporation.
August 21, 2020
On May 25, 2020, George Floyd, a 46-year-old Black man, was killed in Minneapolis, Minnesota, by a police officer, which has led to a call for action across the country to end racial inequality and police brutality. People across the globe continue to support the Black Lives Matter movement and there has been increased demands to reform, defund, or abolish the police. In this month’s panel, DHM Research explored the attitudes and beliefs that Oregonians have towards the police, protests, and some of the changes being proposed.
These findings come from the July 2020 fielding of our DHM Panel. The survey was conducted from July 14 to 22, 2020, and surveyed 603 Oregonians. The results were weighted by age, gender, area of the state, political party, and level of education to ensure a representative sample of Oregonians ages 18+. The margin of error for this survey ranges from ±2.4% to ±4.0%.
Oregonians’ support for the Black Lives Matter movement has increased since 2018.
Two thirds of Oregonians (66%) now support the Black Lives Matter movement (BLM); this represents a 12-point increase from when we asked this question back in May of 2018. Support for BLM is higher in Oregon than in the rest of the nation as a whole. About half of Americans support BLM, according to a national survey conducted by Civiqs, and support has increased nationally over this same time period.
Support for BLM varies by age, region, and party. Differences by political party are particularly stark. 91% of Democrats and 64% of NAV/other voters below the age of 30 (92% among those ages 18-29) compared to those ages 30 and above (53%-69%). Finally, support is higher in the Portland metro area (72%) than in the rest of Oregon (61%-63%).
Oregonians are having conversations about race, racism, and policing (and that’s not all).
55% of Oregonians report that they’ve talked with family or friends about racial injustice since the death of George Floyd. Oregonians have also taken other forms of action such as posting on social media (28%), signing a petition (24%), donating money (17%), and attending a protest or demonstration (12%).
Oregonians who have taken action most often attribute it to dialogue and open communication being good (27%) and wanting to support the movement (18%).
Among all of the actions asked, younger Oregonians and Democrats are the most active in showcasing support for the Black Lives Matter movement; they’re particularly more active in talking with family or friends about racial injustice (14 point increase), posting on social media about racial injustice (20 point increase), and signing petitions (21 point increase).
Although many have taken action, over a third of Oregonians have not (36%). Generally speaking, those who do not support BLM are less likely to have taken action in response to recent events.
Two-thirds of Oregonians support the protests held around the country in response to the death of George Floyd.
67% of Oregonians support the recent protests held in response to the death of George Floyd at the hands of police. Still, almost a third (29%) of Oregonians oppose these protests.
Similar to the Black Lives Matter movement, support for the protests is strongest among Democrats (86%) and younger Oregonians (18-29: 82%), while a majority of Republicans (57%) oppose the protests.
Half of Oregonians disapprove of the way police have responded to the protests.
53% of Oregonians disapprove of how police have responded to the protests, while one-third (35%) approve of their response. Differences are notable by age and political affiliation.
Those ages 18-29 (70%) are more likely to report disapproval of recent police behavior, while those over the age of 45 are more split in their views. Democrats (68%) and NAV/Other (51%) disapprove of the police’s response to protests considerably more than Republicans (28%).
Oregonians aren’t sure how violent protests are and who incites violence at protests when it occurs.
Half of Oregonians (50%) think that the protests have been both peaceful and violent, while 27% believe the protests have been mostly peaceful and 19% believe they’ve been mostly violent. Points of view vary most significantly by political affiliation.
Republicans (44%) are more likely to report the protests as violent, while Democrats report protests being more peaceful at a higher rate (48%).
Oregonians are less optimistic than Americans about the prospect for meaningful reform.
A plurality of Oregonians are unsure (38%) if the recent protests calling to end racial inequality will lead to meaningful reform, while the remainder are split (31% yes and no) as to what the future holds.
In contrast, national research by Quinnipiac University Poll found that over half (55%) of Americans believe the protests will lead to meaningful reform, while 38% disagree and 7% were unsure.
In Oregon, opinions are widely divided by political affiliation, area of the state, and age. Democrats (48%) are more likely to believe meaningful reform will happen, while few Republicans (8%) hold this belief; NAV/Other (34%) align more closely with Democrats.
Portland metro residents (38%) are more optimistic about meaningful reform than those in Willamette Valley (27%) and the rest of the state (24%). Those ages 18-29 (39%) are more likely to believe meaningful reform will happen as a result of the protests than those ages 45-64 (26%).
Oregonians are concerned about the potential impact of protests on the spread of COVID-19.
Almost two thirds of Oregonians (64%) are concerned that the recent protests may lead to an increase in coronavirus cases. In a seemingly rare moment of consensus, these concerns are shared across all demographic groups. Those in the tri-county area are slightly more worried (71%) than others.
DHM-OVBC-July-Survey-Injustice_Policing-July-2020
August 13, 2020
COVID-19 is creating complex challenges for schools in Oregon and across the country, from physical safety to the effectiveness of remote learning. Due to the economic impacts of COVID-19, many school districts may also be faced with financial problems. The decline of state and local revenue could force schools to layoff teachers and/or delay hiring.
In addition, the ongoing protests in response to the death of George Floyd have given new urgency to the issues of racial injustice. Schools are hearing these demands and considering ways to increase the diversity of teachers in the classroom and develop curriculum that represents and meets the needs of all Oregon students.
These findings come from the July 2020 fielding of our DHM OVBC Panel. The survey was conducted from July 14 to 22, 2020, and surveyed 603 Oregonians. The results were weighted by age, gender, area of the state, political party, and level of education to ensure a representative sample of Oregonians ages 18+. The margin of error for this survey ranges from ±2.4% to ±4.0%.
Oregonians reject public school hiring and retention policies that prioritize teachers’ length of service over performance.
We asked Oregonians about hiring and retention practices several ways in the survey, starting with their support or opposition to a practice commonly called “last hired, first fired.” This is a policy that, when making budget cuts, prioritizes retaining teachers who have the longest tenure, while the teachers that were most recently hired are the first to be let go. Just 20% of Oregonians support “last hired, first fired,” while 69% oppose it and 10% are unsure.
Unlike many policy issues, there are not significant differences in opinions between Democrats and Republicans. 69% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans oppose “last hired, first fired,” as do 75% of NAV/Other voters.
While this practice is opposed by every demographic group, there are modest differences in support levels by educational attainment. 27% of Oregonians with a high school degree or less support “last hired, first fired” compared to 20% of those with 2-year degree/some college and 13% of those with a 4-year degree. As we’ll see, this difference in education appears in other attitudes about teaching and curriculum.
Oregonians agree teachers should be retained based on their performance in student academic growth rather than how many years they have been teaching.
The flip side of “last hired, first fired” is a policy that prioritizes retaining teachers based on performance when budget cuts require reducing staff. 81% of Oregonians agree with this approach, while just 12% disagree. Again, there is little difference by party with 83% of Democrats, 79% of Republicans and 85% of NAV/Others in agreement. Though it is only a modest difference, Oregonians with more education are more agreeable than those with less education (84-85% of 2-year/some college and 4-year degree vs. 76% of high school or less).
Opinions about these hiring and retention practices may not be fixed. Oregonians are open to the idea that long-term teachers should be protected from being replaced by lower wage teachers.
Some say that “last hired, first fired” protects teachers who have given years of service to a school. Without this protection, school districts would have the incentive to replace higher wage, longer tenured teachers with lower wage, less experienced teachers.
With this in mind, we asked Oregonians if they agreed or disagreed with the statement: Teachers with seniority need to be protected, otherwise, they will be forced out of their jobs since newer and less experienced teachers are paid less. A majority, 51%, of Oregonians agreed with this statement compared to 37% who disagreed and 12% who were unsure.
Differences across the parties are somewhat greater on this question, with more Democrats (56%) and NAV/Others (52%) agreeing to the statement then Republicans (40%).
The differences by education level persist and there are also differences by income. Lower income Oregonians are more in agreement with this statement than those with higher incomes. Specifically, 59% of Oregonians with a high school degree or less agree to this statement compared to 45-46% of those with more education. Similarly, 57% of Oregonians with incomes below $25,000 agree versus 43-47% of those with incomes above $50,000.
Oregonians are split about the need for more teachers of color, with sharp differences by political party and other demographic groups.
Overall, 55% of Oregonians agree that schools in the state need to hire more teachers of color to better reflect the increasing number of students of color in the classroom, while 29% disagree and 16% are unsure.
Unlike “last hired, first fired” policies, when it comes to hiring for racial diversity there are large partisan differences with Democrats on one side, Republicans on the other and NAV/Other falling in between. Specifically, 80% of Democrats agreed with this statement compared to 26% of Republicans and 49% of NAV/Other.
Education level is correlated with the idea that it is important to hire more teachers of color. Two-thirds (66%) of Oregonians with a 4-year degree agreed, while just about half of those (49-52%) with less education agreed. By geography, 63% of Oregonians who live in the Portland metro area agree to this statement, which is higher than those who live in the Willamette Valley (45%) and the rest of the state (52%).[1]
Notably, these differences by party, education and geography are greater than the differences by race. 60% of Oregonians from communities of color and 54% of white residents agree with this statement.
Most Oregonians agree that school curriculum needs to include culturally specific context and experiences.
61% of Oregonians agree with the statement that school curriculum and learning needs to include culturally specific content and experiences, 25% disagree and 14% are unsure. Like teacher diversity, support is highest among Democrats (83%), college graduates (72%), and residents in the Portland metro area (73%). Also, like teacher diversity, there is little difference between communities of color (64%) and white residents (61%).
Despite overall support for teacher and curriculum diversity, most Oregonians do not consider these as high priorities for schools.
[1] Some Oregon counties outside of the Portland metro area and Willamette Valley have the highest percentages of non-white populations, particularly Jefferson, Morrow, Malheur, Hood River and Umatilla counties.
Just 49% of Oregonians believe think that culturally inclusive and relevant curriculum should be a priority population. Even fewer (42%).think that it should be a priority to have diverse teachers who reflect the student population. Oregonians rate these as lower priorities than other education needs, including creating a sense of belonging for all students (73%) and supporting students’ social emotional learning.
These issues—sense of belonging and social emotional needs—are certainly connected to the teachers in the classroom and the materials students are taught. There are opportunities to increase support for hiring and curriculum diversity by connecting these policies directly to students’ well-being.
The research was completed as a community service by DHM Research in partnership with the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center. Both organizations are independent and non-partisan. DHM Research is a Certified B Corporation and OVBC is an Oregon charitable nonprofit corporation.
DHM OVBC July Panel_Education Blog Post Annotated — July 2020.pdf
July 31, 2020
On May 25, 2020, George Floyd, a 46-year old Black man, was killed in Minneapolis, Minnesota, by a police officer and has since spread a call for action across the country to end to racial inequality and police brutality. People across the globe continue to support the Black Lives Matter movement and demand to reform, defund, or abolish the police. Political leaders have looked towards implementing policy changes that meet the demands of the continued protests. Some of these policy changes have directly targeted the decrease of police funding, while others have demanded more specific changes such as the banning of chokeholds by law enforcement officers. In this month’s panel, DHM Research explored the attitudes and beliefs that Oregonians have towards the police, protests, and changes being asked across the country.
These findings come from the July 2020 fielding of our DHM OVBC Panel. The survey was conducted from July 14 to 22, 2020, and surveyed 603 Oregonians. The results were weighted by age, gender, area of the state, political party, and level of education to ensure a representative sample of Oregonians ages 18+. The margin of error for this survey ranges from ±2.4% to ±4.0%.
Oregonians approve of the police in their community more than police in the
United States.
55% of Oregonians approve of the way police in their community are doing their job. Approval drops to 40% when asked about the job performance of police in the United States broadly. It’s not uncommon for people to give better ratings for issues closer to home versus elsewhere.
Differences are wide by age and political affiliation. Older Oregonians (45-64, 53%) are more likely to report approval for police in the United States than those under the age of 30 (18%). A large majority of Republicans (80%) approve of the job the United States police are doing, while Democrats (22%) and NAV/Other (35%) are significantly less supportive.
Oregonians who disapprove of the job performance of police across the country attribute it mainly to excessive violence (39%), racism (22%), and abuse of power (20%). Those who approve attribute it to policing being a tough job (35%), there only being a few bad cops (27%), and most police officers being well trained and professional (23%).
Do police treat white people and Black people equally?
Slightly over half of Oregonians (55%) believe that police treat white people better than Black people, while almost a third (30%) hold the view that police treat white people and Black people equally. 1% of Oregonians believe the police treat Black people better.
Most Oregonians (62%) also believe the deaths of Black people during encounters with the police are signs of a broader problem, and again almost a third (29%) believe these are isolated incidents.
Those in the Portland metro (72%) are more likely to report this being signs of a broader problem, while those in Willamette Valley (54%) and the rest of the state (54%) are less convinced.
Democrats (86%), those under the age of 30 (72%), and people over age 65 (71%) are more likely to report that the deaths of Black people during encounters with the police are signs of a broader problem than those ages 45-64 (53%) and Republicans (26%). The shared views from our youngest and oldest Oregonians may be due to the fact that younger people have been taking the lead on these protests against racial inequality and those 65+ see similarities between what they experienced during the Civil Rights movement and now.
Now more than ever, a majority of Oregonians acknowledge the need and urgency for state leaders to look at the intersection of race and policing. These issues about policing, race, and racism are important and they will require leaders to address current policies and public safety measures.
Oregonians are split between police reform and reinventing our approach to
public safety.
Seven out of ten (70%) Oregonians believe that some sort of change needs to happen with police departments. More than half of those who believe that change is needed (39%) believe that police departments have a problem with race, but it can be fixed by reforming the existing system. Others who believe in change (31%) also believe that reform hasn’t worked in the past and we need to reinvent our approach to public safety.
In early June, a national survey was conducted by YouGov Poll that asked participants which statement came closest to their view on police reform. The results indicate that a majority of the nation believes that we can fix the problem with race, by reforming the existing system (59%). However, panel results indicate that Oregonians are more split in their belief to defund the police (31%) or reform the existing system (39%). Points of view vary by political party, education, and age.
Democrats (49%), college graduates (39%), and Oregonians younger than age 45 (45%) are more likely to believe that we need to defund the police and reinvent the way that we approach public safety.
Oregonians older than age 45 plus (46%) are more likely to believe that reforming our current system will fix the problem we have with race. Half of the Republicans (50%) believe that police departments don’t need to be reformed.
Requiring police intervention, reporting of force, and publicly releasing disciplinary records receive the most support amongst various changes to policing and public safety.
There is overwhelming support for changes to policing and public safety when focusing on police accountability. Some of these changes include requiring police to intervene when other officers are using excessive force (91%), requiring officers to report each time they use force against a civilian (81%), and requiring states to publicly release disciplinary records for law enforcement officers (76%).
The strongest degree of support for these changes are shown by Democrats (89% or more), college graduates (80% or more), and Oregonians between the ages 18–29 (81% or more). While small amounts of opposition are likely from those who identify as Republican (33% or less), have a high school diploma or less (16%), and are older than 65 years of age (21%).
How much funding should we shift to social services?
Oregonians believe that an average of 22%, with a median value of 15%, of the police budget should be allocated towards social services. Democrats and NAV/Other voters are more likely to provide a percentage that is within 10% or more of the average. While Republicans are more likely to provide a percentage that is lower than the average. It is also more likely that Republicans (73%) would oppose allocating any funds to social services.
Alternatives to Justice
Restorative and transformative justice provide two possible alternatives in how we shape the criminal justice system. However, six out of ten Oregonians are not familiar with either concept.
After providing a definition for each approach to justice, a majority (67%) of Oregonians say that they would support using these principles to reshape the criminal justice system. Levels of support vary by political party, and approval of the police in the US.
Democrats (83%) and NAV/Other voters (70%) are more likely to support using these methods while Republicans (40%) are less likely to support using these methods.
Furthermore, those who disapprove of policing in the US (82%) also support these methods at a greater rate than those who approve of policing in the US (48%).
Although the split in partisanship is not surprising, the supporting majority of these changes indicate that a change in policing and public safety is possible.
The research was completed as a community service by DHM Research in partnership with the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center. Both organizations are independent and non-partisan. DHM Research is a Certified B Corporation and OVBC is an Oregon charitable nonprofit corporation.
DHM-OVBC-Panel Police, Protests, Racial Injustice Survey –July 2020 Census Weighted Tables.pdf DHM OVBC-July Survey_summary memo – Police, Protests, Racial Injustice – July 2020.pdf
Oregon is in the middle of a drought. Most Oregonians may not realize this as their attention has been largely focused on COVID-19. We are curious to know how aware Oregonians are of Oregon’s water issues and their perceptions for Oregon’s environmental challenges in the future.
These findings come from the fielding of the monthly DHM-OVBC Oregon Values and Beliefs Panel Survey. The online survey was conducted from May 29-June 7, 2020. It surveyed 900 Oregonians. To ensure a representative statewide sample, demographic quotas were set, and the data was weighted by area of the state, gender, age, and education. The survey’s margin of error is ±2.0% to ±3.3% depending on how the response category percentages split for any given question.
Is it Raining?
How aware Oregonians are of the current drought? Twenty-six percent (26%) of respondents reported that rainfall is at drought levels and an additional 38% report rainfall is a bit below normal. So, a majority of Oregonians are unaware of the drought, but 64% know that rainfall is below average.
Oregonians knowledge regarding rainfall is fairly stable across demographics. We do see some variance for age and county. Thirty-six percent (36%) of seniors (65 and older) were aware of the drought level rainfall, much higher than the 18% of young respondents (18-34 years old). Respondents in the Tri-County appear slightly less aware of the drought, only 23% reporting we are at drought level rainfall compared to 31% in the rest of the state and 26% in the Willamette Valley.
Water Needs and Management
A majority of Oregonians, 60%, believe that we have enough water for our current needs. Oregonians are more divided over our future needs, with just 39% believing we have enough water for the future. Respondents tend to approve more than they disapprove of Oregon’s management of water supplies during draughts, 48% approve and 25% disapprove. It appears that many respondents are unsure and not aware of how effective Oregon manages the water supply.
Republicans tend to report higher frequencies of having enough water for current and future needs (73% current and 57% for future) compared to Democrats (54% current and 26% future) and NAV/ Other (56% current and 40% future).
Perceptions of our current water needs tended to be divided by household income. Low-income respondents (under $25,000 a year) reported we have enough water in 46% of cases, far less than the 70% reported by high-income respondents (over $100,000 a year).
Water Related Challenges Over Ten Years
Over the next 10 years, Oregonians expect to experience some water related challenges. A strong majority of respondents believe it is likely that Oregon will experience a loss of Douglas Firs (60%), hotter summers (71%), increased conflict between water users (62%), and an increase in the number and severity of wildfires (74%).
Oregonians judgements varied by respondents’ age, education, and political affiliation. We averaged responses across the five topics for the demographics displayed below.
Younger individuals (mean=55.8%) tended to be less sure that the future would hold water challenges than older Oregonians (65 and older, mean=68.2%). We also see significant differences across education, with more educated respondents (mean=74.4% compared to mean=56.6%) expecting challenges more frequently. And, across political affiliation, Democrats frequently expect water challenges in the future (mean=76%), followed by NAV/Other (mean=62.6%), and Republicans (mean=49%).
How Does This Compare to a Year Ago?
We asked the same questions in August of 2019. Although the results from this survey seem like Oregonians expect water challenges, the percentages fell across all topics. The most significant change is reduced water quality, falling from a strong majority of 60% in August 2019 to just 48% in June 2020.
Summary
Oregonians have adapted many of their behaviors in response to COVID-19, including transportation ones. It is still unclear which of these new behaviors are here to stay and which will subside as we transition out of the pandemic. Oregonians are split on hypothetical measures to increase spending flexibility of revenue from the gas tax and the implementation of mileage-based user fee program. The future of these measures will likely come down to how NAV/Other vote and the effectiveness of the campaigns on both sides.
The differences may arise for several reasons. Respondents in August 2019 were living in a very different world than in June 2020. In August 2019, respondents were in the middle of a very hot month when these issues may have seemed more prominent. In contrast, in June 2020, most respondents focus is likely on COVID-19 and the recent racism and police brutality protests. COVID-19 has also been beneficial to reduce CO2 emissions and increase environmentally sustainable behavior which may have made respondents more optimistic regarding water challenges of the future.
Summary
Oregonians are largely unaware that the state faces a drought, but a majority know that rainfall is below average. Still, most respondents feel we have enough water for our current needs, but they are less certain regarding our future needs. More generally, Oregonians appear more optimistic regarding future water related challenges in June 2020 than they were in August 2019. As discussed, this is likely due to respondent’s having very different focuses. It will be interesting to see how these opinions change as we move out of the shadows of COVID-19.
DOWNLOAD:DHM OVBC Water_Draught June 2020 Survey.pdf
In response to COVID-19 and the shelter-in-place order, Oregonians’ travel and transportation habits were forced to change. We are curious to know how Oregonians adapted their habits, what their current outlook is, and their expectations for the future.
These findings come from the fielding of the monthly DHM-OVBC Oregon Values and Beliefs Panel Survey. The online survey was conducted from May 29-June 7, 2020. It surveyed 900 Oregonians. To ensure a representative statewide sample, demographic quotas were set, and the data was weighted by area of the state, gender, age, and education. The survey’s margin of error is ±2.0% to ±3.3% depending on how the response category percentages split for any given question.
How Has COVID-19 Affected Oregonians?
COVID-19 has changed how we live. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Oregonians reported that the pandemic has changed their daily routines. All of the changes relate to limiting the exposure and transmission of COVID-19. Respondents are purchasing masks (52%), washing their hands more frequently (73%), and avoiding physical contact with others (71%). For some, the pandemic has meant working from home (18%) and having children stay at home (18%).
Is This the New Normal?
COVID-19 has forced Oregonians to adapt. We wanted to measure which of these changes were felt by Oregonians to be desirable, and whether they felt the change would be temporary or permanent. Oregonians perceived driving less and spending more time locally as a very desirable change (51%) but did not expect it to be permanent (10%).
Ordering goods online was not seen as desirable change (18%), but most respondents believe it will be a permanent one (59%). Oregonians appear uncertain about telemedicine. Forty-one percent (41%) of respondents see the new reliance on telemedicine as temporary, while 32% expect it to be permanent.
Will environmentally sustainable behavior stick?
We asked Oregonians how likely they would do be to behave in certain ways as the state came out of the coronavirus pandemic in order to reduce CO2 emissions. About 50% of respondents believe they are likely or somewhat likely to maintain the environmentally sustainable behaviors, with a high of 63% believing they are likely to live a simpler lifestyle and a low of 27% feeling they would work less.
Revenue generated from the gas tax is also projected to decrease and is already not keeping up with the cost of repairing roads. Given this problem, we asked Oregonians if they would be willing to fund a mileage-based user fee program as an alternate way to fund transportation.
More Oregonians oppose a mileage-based user fee program (46%) than support it (40%). Again, an important portion of Oregonians remain unsure (14%). Opponents are stronger in their opposition (29% strongly oppose) than supporters in their support (14%). The uncertainty and overall narrow difference between those who oppose and those who support these measures suggests that a strong campaign on either side of the issue could make the difference.
The results from both measures vary significantly based on political affiliation and education of the respondents. Respondents with a university degree supported both measures, 51% support for the mileage-based user fee program and 56% support for amending the Oregon Constitution and allow greater flexibility to spend gas tax revenue. This is far more than the 36% and 42% support rates for respondents with a high school diploma.
Democrats tend to support both measures, but their support appears stronger for increasing the flexibility of gas tax revenue (65%). Republicans are strongly opposed to both measures. In both cases, NAV/Other falls in between Democrats and Republicans. NAV/Other appear to be more on the side of Republicans and in opposition to the mileage-based user fee program and are squarely in between the two major parties on redirect gas tax revenue.
Summary
Oregonians have adapted many of their behaviors in response to COVID-19, including transportation ones. It is still unclear which of these new behaviors are here to stay and which will subside as we transition out of the pandemic. Oregonians are split on hypothetical measures to increase spending flexibility of revenue from the gas tax and the implementation of mileage-based user fee program. The future of these measures will likely come down to how NAV/Other vote and the effectiveness of the campaigns on both sides.
DOWNLOAD: DHM OVBC Transportation June 2020 Survey.pdf
As a result of COVID-19, Oregonians have been forced to change how they live. A positive outcome of this has been a transition to more environmentally sustainable behavior. We are curious to know how Oregonians view these changes in behavior and their expectations regarding environmentally sustainable behavior in the future.
These findings come from the fielding of the monthly DHM-OVBC Oregon Values and Beliefs Panel Survey. The online survey was conducted from May 29-June 7, 2020. It surveyed 900 Oregonians. To ensure a representative statewide sample, demographic quotas were set, and the data was weighted by area of the state, gender, age, and education. The survey’s margin of error is ±2.0% to ±3.3% depending on how the response category percentages split for any given question.
How important do Oregonians think it is to maintain environmentally sustainable behavior following the pandemic?
A majority of Oregonians (61%) believe it is important to maintain environmentally sustainable behavior to reduce CO2 emissions as we come out of the coronavirus pandemic (importance was determined by responses of 7 and higher on a 0-to-10 scale). Thirty-one percent (31%) believe it is 10/10 important to maintain these behaviors while 10% of Oregonians believe it is 0/10 important to maintain them. The mean score for Oregonians was 6.7, indicating that most Oregonians do believe it is important to stay environmentally sustainable.
The results varied by the respondents’ region, gender, and political affiliation. Individuals in the Willamette Valley (Mean=6.3) believe it was less important to maintain environmentally sustainable behaviors than individuals in Tri-County (mean=7.1) and the rest of the state (mean=6.7). And, women (mean=7.2) feel it is more important than men (mean=6.2).
Predictably, the perceived importance of maintaining environmentally sustainable behaviors also varied by political ideology, with Democrats (mean=8.5) considerably more likely to say it is important than Republicans (mean=4.5), and NAV/Other (mean=6.5) fell directly in between.
Will behavior stick?
We asked Oregonians how likely they thought these new behaviors would continue following the COVID-19 pandemic. Most of the polled behaviors are considered likely or somewhat likely to continue by about 50% of respondents. Sixty-three percent (63%) believe that living a simpler life is likely to be a lasting change while just 27% of Oregonians think they will work less following the pandemic.
If we exclude work less, an item perceived to be not likely of continuing for most Oregonians, we can identify trends by demographic. Across the other five behaviors (stay closer to home during vacations, consuming less, living a simpler life, driving less, and flying less), the average affirmative response varies by gender, income, and political ideology.
Women (mean=61.8) are more likely to commit to these COVID-19 changed behaviors than are men (mean=48.4). This is consistent with the results from the importance to maintain behaviors. So, women both find it more important to maintain environmentally sustainable behaviors and report higher likelihoods of continuing new sustainable behaviors.
Similar to the gender, we again see that Republicans (mean=39.6), compared to Democrats (mean=66.2) and NAV/Other (mean=53), perceive it less likely that they will continue these new COVID-19 induced habits.
By comparing high-income Oregonians (over $100,000 a year) and low-income Oregonians (under $25,000 a year), we find that well-off respondents (mean=50.6) report that they are less likely to continue to engage in sustainable behavior than those in the low-income group (mean=59.2). This is especially important because high-income Oregonians likely changed their lifestyles more than low-income Oregonians. This may suggest that wealthier individuals are more likely to revert to the behaviors of pre-COVID days. Still, a narrow majority of the wealthy respondents reported they were likely or somewhat likely to maintain their new behaviors.
Balancing Desirability with Expectations
Respondents were asked to assess the desirability and predict the permanence of two general habits: driving less and staying in one’s local area and living simply and consuming less. Overall, respondents tended to see these new environmentally sustainable behaviors as desirable but perceived them to likely be not happening or only temporary changes.
In both cases, just 10% of Oregonians thought these habits would become permanent changes. This is in striking contrast to the previous questions where Oregonians perceived it as likely that they would adopt environmentally sustainable behaviors.
Oregonians Support a Green Jobs Training Program
Oregonians tend to be supportive of a new Green Jobs Training Program (mean=6.8). Sixty-two percent (62%) of respondents were very supportive and just 17% were not supportive. Consistent with the other findings, Republicans remain in opposition to something environmentally friendly (mean=4.6) compared to Democrats (mean=8.6) and NAV/Other (mean=6.7). Gender also remained divided, but the gap was narrow. Females (mean=7.0) were slightly more supportive of the program compared to males (mean=6.6).
Summary
Oregonians believe it is important to maintain COVID-19 induced environmentally sustainable behaviors and overwhelmingly support a Green Jobs Training Program. Still, it is not all good news for environmental sustainability. Although respondents report it likely that they will adopt new behaviors and believe it would be desirable for Oregonians to live simpler and more local lives, they do not see permanent changes and a new normal. Common trends of gender (women caring more than men) and political ideology (Republicans caring less than Democrats and NAV/Other) consistently influence Oregonians beliefs on environmentally sustainable matters. Overall, Oregonians support an environmentally sustainable lifestyle, but it is unclear if the new behaviors that arose out of the COVID-19 pandemic are here to stay.
DOWNLOAD: DHM OVBC Climate Change June 2020 Survey.pdf
DHM Research is pleased to share results of our latest COVID-19 survey. This is the second of two data releases for this survey. Key findings in today’s release include:
- 43% of Oregonians now say the state is headed in the right direction while 38% feel that it is off on the wrong track. The right direction percentage is down from 56% in April.
- Oregonians are feeling a mixture of optimism and pessimism about the future. On the positive side, 57% report that most days they feel that there are valuable lessons to be learned from COVID-19. But on the negative side, 53% also report that most days they feel that we won’t learn from COVID-19 or change our behaviors.
- Many Oregonians believe that some changes we’ve experienced due to COVID-19 will become permanent, including increased online shopping (59%), remote working (46%), and, worryingly, persistently high unemployment (26%).
- 63% of Oregonians rate the state’s economic conditions as poor or very poor. This is up from 55% in March.
- Although Oregonians are growing more concerned about the state of the economy, they have become less worried about their own personal financial situations. Now, 49% say that they are somewhat or very worried about their financial situation, which is down from 63% in March and 56% in April.
- Oregonians are becoming increasingly divided about opening up the economy. Given the choice 40% said it is urgent to open up the economy while 55% said it is not safe yet. Opinions vary starkly by political party with 66% of Republicans saying that opening is urgent compared to just 16% of Democrats.
Additional findings in the survey include the percentage of Oregonians who expect need help paying for everyday basics and housing, current attitudes on taxes and public spending, beliefs about longer-term changes about work, driving and personal consumption.
DOWNLOAD: DHM COVID-19 Summary Memo & Toplines DOWNLOAD: DHM COVID-19 Survey Crosstabs
DHM Research conducted its second survey of Oregonians about COVID-19. This is the third of three data releases from this survey. Key findings in today’s release includes:
Releasing people from jails and prisons
- Oregonians strongly oppose (68% oppose) a general release of people from jails and prisons to meet COVID-19 social distancing guidelines. A majority (56%) also oppose releasing inmates because they are medically fragile.
- Oregonians are split about whether to release inmates from Oregon’s jails and prisons who have less than 12 months remaining on their terms or who are deemed low risk to the community.
Experiences and opinions about the healthcare system
- 3 in 10 Oregonians have had the treatment of an important health issue delayed because it is not considered essential during the COVID-19 outbreak.
- A majority (59%) believe Oregon’s hospitals have capacity for the number of people expected to need care for COVID-19.
The typical Oregonian expects that it will take another two months before it is safe to go to the doctor’s office for routine care and three months to have surgery at a hospital.
The research was completed as a community service by DHM Research in partnership with the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center. Both organizations are independent and non-partisan. DHM Research is a Certified B Corporation and OVBC is an Oregon charitable nonprofit corporation.
DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID 2 Survey Report_data release 3 — April 2020.pdf DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID Survey 2–Tables–Data Release 3.pdf DOWNLOAD: Oregon COVID Survey 2_data release 3–Annotated–April 2020.pdf